How can you track expropriation and resource nationalism risk by country?
To track expropriation risk by country, use three layers. The first is a slow structural score, such as the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators, which cover more than 200 economies. Dispute data comes second, such as the ICSID caseload statistics published twice a year. Third are alerts on the government acts that start a claim, such as decrees and licence decisions. DSPT Finder is an AI tool that sources international arbitration leads. It finds investment treaty disputes before they are filed, so arbitration lawyers reach the client first. Its place is the third layer: it classifies what it finds by country, sector and dispute type.
No layer works alone. Our page on early warning for investment treaty disputes covers the third.
Which public indicators exist, and what does each one miss?
Public data shows where and how much, never when.
- ICSID's caseload statistics (Issue 2026-2) cover 1,118 cases registered to 30 June 2026. They count registered claims, so they trail the act behind each one, but the data is free and detailed.
- UNCTAD counted 1,463 known treaty cases at 31 December 2025 and says the true number is likely higher, because some arbitrations can be kept fully confidential.
- The World Bank's governance indicators use perception data from 35 cross-country sources, updated once a year, so they say nothing about a specific act.
UNCTAD's Investment Policy Monitor, a database of national investment policy measures, and the OECD's country risk classification are public too.
Which government measures signal rising risk before a claim?
Watch for five kinds of act: licence revocations, export bans and quotas, windfall or royalty changes, contract renegotiation and nationalisation laws. Each is dated and public.
- Mexico reserved lithium to the State and barred new concessions and permits in a Mining Law reform published on 20 April 2022, Holland & Knight reports. See investment disputes in Mexico.
- In October 2025 the DRC replaced a February 2025 cobalt export ban with an annual quota of 96,600 metric tons for each of 2026 and 2027, Gibson Dunn notes. See mining disputes.
- On 30 November 2022 a WTO panel found Indonesia's nickel ore export ban inconsistent with the GATT 1994. That is a trade case, not an investment claim. See investment disputes in Indonesia.
- Ecofin reports that Axis International says it seeks USD 28.9bn over a permit revocation announced on 14 May 2025. Axis International v. Guinea (ICSID Case No. ARB/26/3) was registered on 15 January 2026, about eight months later.
How do you build a country shortlist that stays current?
Start with exposure. List the countries and sectors where clients hold assets or the practice already works, then add three fields to each line.
- Treaty status: the bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and the Energy Charter Treaty in force, and any exit. Honduras's ICSID denunciation, received on 24 February 2024, took effect on 25 August 2024, Mayer Brown reports.
- The instrument. Across all ICSID cases, 58% rest on a BIT and 15% on a contract, while investment laws account for 7%. Orano Mining v. Niger (ICSID Case No. ARB/25/8) is contract-based, so a list built from treaties alone would miss it.
- A review trigger: an election, a price spike or a budget that changes what a government wants from its resource sector.
Which countries are showing up in new ICSID cases right now?
Colombia, Guinea and Ukraine each had four new cases registered in ICSID's 2026 fiscal year (to 30 June 2026). Tanzania and Mexico had three each. By region, South America had 22% of the 60 new cases, according to the fiscal-year statistics.
That is a count of registered claims. It is not a risk ranking or a forecast. One more case in Tanzania or Mexico would put that country level with the top three. Periods differ too: ICSID's calendar-2025 release put Sub-Saharan Africa first at 24%.
What is good political risk monitoring software for foreign investors?
Good software tells a team about a government act while the investor still has options. It also says what it cannot see.
Personal networks run deep in countries a partner already knows. Databases and registry alerts show a dispute once it is registered.
Country-score services give a periodic view, and insurers cover defined perils on a priced project. The World Bank Group's Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) says in its Investment Guarantee Guide of July 2015 that its expropriation cover includes creeping expropriation. Neither tells a law firm which investor a decree has just hit, and signal-based monitoring tools aim at that gap before filing, though they pay no one's loss. Ask for six outcomes:
- It reads official sources in the local language.
- It shows which sector and which investors an act touches.
- A draft measure is kept apart from an enacted one, and both from a served notice.
- A team can follow chosen countries and sectors.
- The alert arrives before registration, early enough to act.
- The tool says what it cannot see, and legal judgement stays with the lawyer.
Try any candidate on Guinea's permit revocation of 14 May 2025. A tool that first shows Axis International's case on its registration date, 15 January 2026, is a database.
What this means for practice
A country list earns its place when each line carries a treaty status, an instrument and a dated act. Write "high" and a partner has nothing to do. Put "Guinea-UAE BIT of 2011; permit revocation announced 14 May 2025; Axis International v. Guinea registered 15 January 2026" there instead and a partner has a call to make.
That is more upkeep than a score. Some acts never reach an official source or the press. We think it is worth it, but a list will always trail the next decree.
For more on this topic, see our piece on resource nationalism in mining and energy and our guide on how to detect investment treaty disputes early.
Frequently asked questions
What is expropriation risk?
Expropriation risk is the chance that a government takes a foreign investment or strips it of value. MIGA defines creeping expropriation as "a series of acts that, over time, have an expropriatory effect".
What is resource nationalism?
Resource nationalism is a government taking firmer control of its natural resources. Gibson Dunn's June 2026 alert lists export bans, quota systems and processing mandates, with examples in the DRC, Indonesia and Zimbabwe.
Does a high country-risk score mean an investor can bring a treaty claim?
No. Scores such as the World Bank's governance indicators are annual and perception-based. A claim needs a covered investor, a government measure and a consent instrument. Across all ICSID cases, 58% rest on a bilateral investment treaty, 15% on a contract and 10% on the Energy Charter Treaty.
Which countries had the most new ICSID cases in FY2026?
Colombia, Guinea and Ukraine had four each in ICSID's fiscal year to 30 June 2026, and Tanzania and Mexico three each. That counts registered claims. It is not a risk ranking, and registration can trail the government act by months.
How can a law firm monitor expropriation and resource nationalism measures by country?
Follow decrees, licence decisions and export rules by country and sector, with treaty status alongside. Monitoring tools such as DSPT Finder surface these government actions daily, in 32 languages, so a team can act before a notice of intent is served.