Background
India's investment-arbitration history pivoted sharply in the 2010s. After losing the White Industries and Vodafone matters, India launched a wholesale review of its BIT network, terminating over 70 BITs and unveiling a 2016 model BIT with significantly narrowed protections.
Vodafone and Cairn
The 2020 Vodafone award and 2020 Cairn Energy award both turned on India's retrospective tax measures. The Cairn award — followed by aggressive enforcement including the seizure of Air India assets in Paris — became a benchmark for post-award pressure tactics.
Model BIT and treaty network
The 2016 model BIT requires exhaustion of local remedies, narrows the definition of investment, and substantially restricts FET protections. The post-reset treaty network is significantly smaller and more conservative.
Sunset claims
Many of the terminated BITs retain sunset clauses preserving treaty protection for pre-termination investments. A meaningful pipeline of claims under these sunset provisions continues.
Outlook
India's recent posture has softened modestly with the new Brazil-India and UAE-India agreements, but the model BIT framework remains restrictive. See our analysis of emerging markets regulatory risk.